Namibia’s goods exports remain mineral-heavy
Robert McGregorNamibia’s goods exports remain dominated by mineral commodities. Diamonds have historically accounted for an average of 18.9% of exports, with other mineral commodities making up around 27.1% of total goods exports. However, this has shifted in recent years.
Diamond exports peaked at N$5.1 billion in Q4 2022, representing 22.4% of total goods exports. This was driven by rising production and strong diamond prices at the time. Both factors have since deteriorated, with diamond exports falling to just N$1.7 billion in Q1 2025 (7.7% of goods exports).
The decline in diamond exports has, however, been more than offset by improved production and stronger local currency prices for a range of other minerals, most notably gold and uranium. Other mineral products rose to 47.1% of exports in Q1 2025, helping sustain hard currency earnings despite weaknesses elsewhere.
While Namibia’s exports are heavily reliant on primary commodities, the diversification within mineral exports has provided resilience against shifting price dynamics.
Despite the prominence given to manufacturing in national planning documents and strategies, this is not reflected in National Accounts or exports. The export of manufactured products, excluding processed fish, peaked at N$3.8 billion in Q3 2022 compared to a long-term average of N$2.4 billion.
As a share of total exports, however, manufacturing’s contribution has steadily declined. Historically averaging 20.2% of goods exports, it has dropped from above 20% in the late 2000s and early 2010s to below 15% for the past six quarters. This decline stems from limited growth in manufactured exports alongside much stronger growth in mineral exports.
While planning documents present lofty ambitions and show a preference for certain sectors, the economic data illustrate the lack of success in the strategy of “picking winners”. Manufacturing, despite its prominence in development plans, has largely stagnated with little evidence of clear or effective policy support.
This is not to argue for direct policy interventions or subsidies, but rather to highlight the disconnect between stated strategies and actual outcomes. Instead of pursuing microeconomic planning and sector-specific ambitions, Namibia would be better served by a sector-agnostic approach that improves the ease of doing business and fosters a competitive environment across all industries.
- Cirrus Capital