China’s new tariff-free regime for Africa
China–Africa trade reached US$348 billion in 2025, up 17.7% from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa dominate trade flows and amounted to US$225 billion, an increase of 25.8%. This compares with US$123 billion in imports from Africa, which grew by just 5.4%. Such a widening trade deficit between Africa and its largest sovereign trading partner points to the timeliness of new Chinese policies that support African exports to China.
Beyond the potential for trade facilitation and diplomacy, at a time of rivalry between global powers, what might this change mean?
Based on years of study of China–Africa trade relations, I argue that there will be two probable main effects – one positive and one negative.
First, on the positive side, zero tariffs could provide incentives for cross-country export cooperation within Africa. On the negative side, it risks creating conditions in which Africa’s stronger economies capture most of the gains at the expense of weaker economies.
The existing regime
China’s Africa-specific trade preferences have evolved through the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, established in 2000. China’s global trade integration has also progressed since its accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001.
Since 2005, African least developed countries have enjoyed zero-tariff access to China across 100% of tariff lines. Least developed countries are low-income nations facing severe structural impediments to sustainable development. They are highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks and have low levels of human capital.
This policy restricted zero-tariff access to around 33 countries (subject to change due to income growth and diplomatic recognition of Beijing). Africa’s middle-income exporters were excluded from these trade preferences.
South Africa, for example, continued to face tariffs on most exports, including fruit, wine, and processed foods, many of which ranged between 10% and 25%.
A handful of research papers have explored earlier Chinese trade preferences for Africa. For example, policy researcher and economist Adam Minson estimated that the least developed country tariff-free arrangements introduced in 2005 would bring some countries as little as an additional US$100 000 annually.
My own PhD research found that, by 2009, these preferential trade policies had not had any significant impact on exports. More recently, economists Zhina Sun and Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi found that the existing zero-tariff policy had promoted diversification of manufacturing exports to China and regional trade, but had little effect on agriculture and mining export diversification.
One recurring recommendation has been to expand equal tariff treatment across African regional blocs, including the East African Community, the Southern African Customs Union, and the Economic Community of West African States.
This could lead to export production being organised regionally, rather than distorted or hampered by tariff differentials.
The reforms announced by Xi in February move in this direction.
An incentive to cooperate?
By extending zero tariffs to almost all African countries, China has removed a key distortion in its earlier tariff policy. When only some countries enjoyed tariff-free export benefits, investors and producers had incentives to locate export production in least developed countries to secure preferential access.
This worked in some cases, but not consistently. Least developed countries often struggle to become exporters due to structural barriers such as unreliable electricity and poor infrastructure.
The new zero-tariff regime may place least developed countries at a disadvantage, as they lose the “special status” afforded under the previous system. However, it may also open new opportunities. Production decisions can now be based on comparative advantage and regional supply chains, rather than tariff differences.
Lowering tariffs for more developed African economies may also enable entrepreneurs to operate across borders without facing uneven trade barriers, thereby supporting Africa’s broader trade integration agenda.
To boost trade, China has also signalled plans to expand trade facilitation measures, including upgraded “green lanes” for African imports. These may include:
faster customs clearance
streamlined phytosanitary procedures (rules governing food safety), such as pre-approval systems for exporters increased investment in training and trade-related logistics
China has also established a dedicated China–Africa trade facilitation hub in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province. The aim is to create a central hub of expertise and industry, making it easier for African and Chinese firms to do business.
The risk of uneven gains
There is a risk that the new tariff regime will lead to export production concentrating in more developed economies such as South Africa, Morocco, and Kenya, which are better positioned to expand exports.
In contrast, least developed countries will continue to face challenges such as:
• inadequate trade-related infrastructure, including telecommunications, electricity, and port connectivity
• limited capacity for production at export scale
• difficulties meeting trade compliance standards, such as quality and consistency requirements
China’s policy shift highlights the need for Africa’s emerging exporters to build cross-border supply chains to achieve the scale and competitiveness required to expand tariff-free exports to China.
This could reduce the pressure on least developed countries to export directly to China, allowing them instead to participate in regional value chains.
Ideally, this could create new incentives for developing trade-related value chains within African sub-regions.
The potential for equalisation
The May Day tariff reforms are a positive step in removing formal trade barriers at a time when tariffs are rising globally, particularly in the United States. The changes simplify incentives and reduce structural asymmetries in China’s Africa trade regime.
However, tariffs are rarely the main constraint on African industrial transformation and export growth. In addition, uncertainty continues to complicate the global trade environment.
Nonetheless, these reforms represent a step towards fostering sub-regional supply chains, provided African countries coordinate their production strategies. – The Conversation
*Lauren Johnston is an Associate Professor, China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
