2026 Agri Outlook: Herd recovery accelerates
The Namibian agricultural sector is entering 2026 in a period of transition, following several years of drought-induced pressure that reshaped production, marketing volumes, and herd structures. According to the Namibia Agriculture Union (NAU)’s 2026 Agriculture Outlook, recovery is underway across most subsectors, although progress varies significantly between livestock, poultry, and crop-based industries.
Cattle sector
The cattle sector remains in a prolonged recovery phase after multiple years of environmental stress. Large parts of the country experienced three consecutive dry years since 2019, forcing widespread destocking and significantly reducing the availability of market-ready animals.
Between January and September 2025, cattle marketing declined sharply. Live exports to South Africa contracted by approximately 76%, while an estimated 60% of cattle sold through auctions were retained by producers for breeding and grow-out purposes rather than slaughter or resale. This contraction reflects biological constraints within the production cycle, as herds require time to rebuild following extended drought conditions.
Looking ahead to 2026, cattle marketing volumes are expected to recover modestly, with growth of between 20% and 30% anticipated as herd rebuilding stabilises. Despite improved rainfall prospects, overall supply is expected to remain constrained in the short term.
Cattle prices are forecast to remain elevated across all categories during 2026. Weaner prices, in particular, will be supported by stable demand from South African feedlots, improved feedlot profitability driven by low yellow maize prices, and strong carcass selling prices. Locally, improved rainfall could further support demand for weaners. However, uncertainty around the evolving Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) situation in both Namibia and South Africa remains a key risk for market stability.
Sheep sector
The sheep sector experienced significant pressure during 2024 and 2025, as drought-related destocking and weak external demand reduced throughput across the value chain. In 2024, sheep production value contracted by 6.61%, reflecting lower slaughter volumes and declining export opportunities to South Africa and other markets.
These pressures intensified in 2025. Sheep marketing declined by 40.85% in the first half of the year, while export abattoirs recorded a 40.57% drop in slaughter. Live sheep exports to South Africa, Namibia’s dominant small-stock outlet, fell by nearly 50%.
Despite lower volumes, producer prices strengthened during 2025. Lamb prices increased by 22.92%, while sheep prices rose by 27.43%. However, these gains did not fully offset rising production costs, leaving many producers under continued cost pressure.
Looking to 2026, slaughter availability is expected to improve as flock rebuilding progresses. The NAU projects that sheep supply could reach approximately 80% of normal levels, reflecting the faster reproductive cycle of small stock compared to cattle. As supply constraints ease, market conditions for sheep are expected to stabilise more quickly than those for cattle.
Poultry sector
The poultry industry continues to expand rapidly and is now the second-largest contributor to agricultural cash receipts in Namibia.
In 2024, broiler production increased by 14.94%, while egg production grew by 6.63%. Growth accelerated further in 2025, with more than 9.3 million chickens marketed in the first half of the year alone. This expansion has been driven largely by increased output from Namib Poultry Industries (NPI) and the successful first year of operations at Kadila Poultry.
Several producers are undertaking major expansions, including new processing facilities and integrated breeder–hatchery systems. These investments are expected to position the sector for further scaling in the coming years. The small and medium enterprise segment also continues to grow, supplying approximately 60 000 broilers per week to informal markets.
Despite strong domestic growth, Namibia remains reliant on poultry imports. During the first half of 2025, over 11 388 tonnes of poultry meat were imported, accounting for about 30% of domestic consumption. The sector also remains dependent on imported yellow maize and soy for feed, highlighting opportunities for domestic grain production.
Regulatory support has been strengthened through enhanced border policing and levy-funded enforcement by the Livestock and Livestock Products Board of Namibia (LLPBN). Ongoing engagement with the Directorate of Veterinary Services on an Avian Influenza Master Plan aims to strengthen biosecurity across the industry.
Agronomy and horticulture
Namibia’s grain sector remains heavily dependent on imports due to limited irrigated capacity and high climate sensitivity. While local supply is expected to improve modestly in 2026 following forecasts of normal to above-normal rainfall, import dependence is projected to remain high at 67%, down slightly from 73% in 2025.
Local white maize purchases are expected to increase from 70 000 tonnes in 2025 to 80 000 tonnes in 2026. Wheat production will continue to meet only about 16% of national demand, with the remaining balance imported. Grain prices are forecast to remain stable during 2026.
Horticulture continues to show structural growth. Formal market share is expected to increase from 34% to 37% in 2025, supported by rising citrus and potato production and upcoming interventions such as the Potato Value Chain Development Scheme.
Export-oriented horticulture remains a key growth driver, particularly in grapes, citrus and blueberries. Namibia is projected to supply around 40% of Southern Africa’s early table grape exports, reinforcing its strategic role in early-season global markets.
Improved logistics through the Walvis Bay Corridor are further strengthening Namibia’s competitiveness as an export route for high-value produce.
