Namibia at the Crossroads
The dominant theme of the Namibia International Energy Conference 2026, held in Windhoek last week, was moving from discovery to "first oil and beyond" – with urgency around timelines and execution. Over the past two years, Namibia has made decisive progress in establishing a national oil and gas sector. The country has done much of the "early work" correctly – discoveries, policy reform, and investor attraction.
However, significant challenges remain in turning opportunity into reality without the corrupt behaviour that has enriched individuals whilst delivering meagre benefits to the people in many other oil-rich states across Africa – the examples abound. The next phase is more complex: building infrastructure, capturing value locally, and integrating Namibia's production into regional markets. Success on these fronts will ultimately determine whether the country merely produces energy – or becomes a true economic powerhouse in Southern Africa.
Major offshore discoveries in the Orange Basin have placed Namibia among the world's most promising new oil frontiers, with production targeted around 2030. Reporting on BP's principal agreement to buy an operating interest in three offshore exploration blocks from Canada-based Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas, Reuters, in a report preceding the conference, appeared to conclude that the oil giant is turning its back on renewables following an ill-fated foray, pledging to dispose of $20 billion worth of assets and reduce its debt to between $14 billion and $18 billion by end-2027. The reality is that BP is scaling back, but not abandoning, its investment in renewables.
Investor interest appears substantial. With BP having taken up a 60 per cent operating interest in three offshore Namibian blocks – PEL 97, 99 and 100 – in the Walvis Basin, it is joining oil majors such as TotalEnergies, Shell and Chevron, which are likely to pursue their interests along the Namibian coast, far removed from the current international flashpoint around the Persian Gulf, where Iran exercises a geopolitical stranglehold on oil supplies from that region.
The Namibian government's response has largely kept pace. The administration of President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is fast-tracking petroleum legislation to strengthen governance, improve regulatory efficiency, and ensure the country captures full value from its resources. This aligns with a broader continental trend in which regulatory reform is becoming essential to unlocking energy investment in a transparent manner.
During a recent conversation with NMH, the chairperson of the Namibia Petroleum Operators Association (NAMPOA), Eduardo Rodriguez Tamayo of Shell Namibia, expressed the urgent need for Namibia to allow further exploration by approving additional Petroleum Exploration Licences (PELs), in line with existing strong international interest in the country. Rodriguez leads Shell's major offshore exploration, including a new drilling campaign in PEL 39 that had been scheduled for April 2026, focusing on expanding discoveries in the Orange Basin.
Namibia's ambitions as a logistics hub are moving from aspiration towards reality, as the country works to address infrastructure constraints. With "first oil and beyond" approaching, efforts are under way to expand port and logistics capacity, particularly around Walvis Bay, to support future exports and regional energy trade. At the same time, the country is not relying solely on hydrocarbons.
Large-scale renewable initiatives aim to raise renewable energy to 70 per cent of the power mix in the long term. This dual-track strategy has, however, encountered challenges, with South Africa so far outpacing Namibia in laying the groundwork for green hydrogen production. South Africa holds an advantage in infrastructure scale and policy rollout, but Namibia remains competitive, particularly through the Hyphen
Hydrogen Energy project.
Significant opportunities remain – many highlighted by parallel developments across Southern Africa. Value addition is still largely untapped. Namibia has signalled that it does not wish to export raw resources, but rather to add value locally – creating job opportunities through refining and downstream industries. Regional discussions around refinery projects, such as Angola's Lobito development and a potential Namibia-Botswana refinery, indicate that control over fuel processing could become a key competitive advantage.
Energy infrastructure integration remains incomplete. Southern Africa is moving towards interconnected power and fuel systems. Namibia has made considerable strides in integrating its power grid into the Southern African Power Pool, as well as establishing fuel storage capacity in its harbour towns. Dedicated pipeline infrastructure still needs to be developed, and storage capacity remains under pressure from the various trading corridors that seek to position Namibia as a full logistics hub for the region.
Investment conversion and the development of local capacity present the most significant challenges. Whilst international interest – including from the United States and Gulf partners – is rising sharply, translating this into jobs, skills transfer, and sustainable industries will determine long-term impact. Namibia's strategic location has long underpinned its ambition of becoming a regional energy and logistics hub.
Ports such as Walvis Bay could gain both economic and geopolitical importance, with global fuel supply disruptions already increasing traffic along African shipping routes. The Suez Canal carries physical restrictions in terms of depth and width, limiting tanker capacity to vessels of around one million barrels and a draft limit of 20 to 21 metres. The largest crude carriers – VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) and ULCCs (Ultra Large Crude Carriers) – which carry two to three million barrels of oil, cannot transit the canal when fully loaded.
This, in itself, creates opportunities for Namibia and Southern Africa: Walvis Bay stands to benefit from bunkering, as well as maintenance and logistics services.
