Namibia eyes 400,000 bpd output by the 2030s
Namibia's offshore oil story is no longer about whether hydrocarbons exist in the Orange Basin, but whether companies can unlock commercially viable reservoirs capable of sustaining large-scale production.
This is according to a strategic presentation by global energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, delivered at the Namibia International Energy Conference 2026 by research director Ian Thom and principal analyst Vincenza Papaleo.
Wood Mackenzie's central message was that Namibia has already won the exploration battle by proving the existence of world-class hydrocarbons in the Orange Basin.
According to the presentation, the industry's early understanding of Namibia's offshore geology was shaped by Chevron's Kudu gas discovery in 1974, Soekor's Ibhubesi gas discovery in 1987 and Chevron's 2815/15-1 gas shows in 1996.
The presentation explained that one of the earliest clues pointing to offshore oil potential came from DSDP 361, a deep-sea drilling programme completed in 1975, which indicated the presence of oil-prone source rocks in deepwater Namibia even as most exploration activity remained focused on gas.
Wood Mackenzie explained that the first deepwater two-dimensional seismic campaigns mapped previously overlooked plays, while the Moosehead-1 well drilled in 2013 proved the existence of oil-prone source rocks in Namibia's deepwater offshore acreage.
The analysts further pointed to a 2014 geological study by Hartwig and others, which confirmed that high heat flow extended into Namibia's deepwater basin, helping crack what Wood Mackenzie described as the basin's 'exploration code'.
The transformation accelerated in 2022 when Shell announced the Graff discovery, and TotalEnergies announced the Venus discovery, two wells that fundamentally changed global perceptions of Namibia's offshore potential and triggered one of the largest frontier exploration rushes seen anywhere in the world in recent years.
Wood Mackenzie's presentation showed that 18 exploration wells drilled during the past four years resulted in 14 discoveries across multiple fairways in the Orange Basin.
However, the report stressed that geological success alone does not guarantee commercial viability.
The analysts repeatedly returned to one central theme throughout the presentation: permeability.
"Permeability is the basin's make-or-break variable," Wood Mackenzie stated, arguing that reservoir quality will ultimately determine which discoveries become producing assets and which remain stranded technical successes.
One of the presentation's most important technical sections involved Wood Mackenzie's Combined Common Risk Segment analysis, commonly referred to as CCRS mapping.
According to the analysts, the CCRS model integrates source, reservoir and seal risks to identify where commercial hydrocarbon accumulations are most likely to occur and where geological failure risks remain highest.
The analysts noted that areas identified as weaker geological fairways later aligned with major industry exits, including TotalEnergies' withdrawal from Blocks 5, 6 and 7 offshore South Africa in July 2024 and Woodside's exit from Namibia's PEL 87 in March 2025.
The presentation also pointed to significant remaining exploration upside offshore South Africa, with Wood Mackenzie estimating that some undrilled areas still carry a 70% to 100% chance of success within the Cretaceous deepwater turbidite system.
TotalEnergies' Venus field was described as technically challenging but commercially important.
According to Wood Mackenzie, surrounding wells drilled around Venus have shown reservoir quality degradation in multiple directions, making the field more difficult to develop despite its enormous scale.
The analysts noted that Venus consists of a single reservoir lobe, measuring roughly 600 square kilometres, with a reservoir thickness ranging from 80 to 120 metres.
Wood Mackenzie warned that high gas-to-oil ratios pose a major issue because gas-handling systems occupy valuable space on offshore production facilities, limiting oil recovery capacity and complicating the design of floating production, storage and offloading vessels.
Wood Mackenzie noted that Venus wells tested at approximately 11,000 barrels per day and contained 38 metres of net pay and 37-degree API oil, figures that continue to support the project's commercial attractiveness despite low permeability concerns.
Shell's offshore campaign received a more cautious assessment.
Wood Mackenzie described Shell's discoveries around Graff, Jonker and Enigma as geologically successful but commercially problematic because of low permeability and reservoir compartmentalisation.
The analysts noted that Shell drilled six wells across three separate plays and successfully proved hydrocarbons, but the reservoirs failed to meet commercial expectations.
The report linked those challenges to Shell's US$400 million write-off recorded during the fourth quarter of 2024.
Wood Mackenzie expressed considerably stronger optimism around Galp's Mopane discovery and Rhino Resources' Capricornus and Volans discoveries.
The presentation described Mopane as a "multi-stacked discovery" containing more than 13 stacked Cretaceous reservoir levels with consistent reservoir quality, high permeability and overpressured systems capable of delivering exceptionally strong production performance.
Wood Mackenzie noted that Mopane test wells achieved flow rates of around 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which the analysts described as exceptional for frontier exploration wells.
The presentation explained that Mopane contains variable fluid systems across multiple stacked reservoirs, adding both opportunity and development complexity.
Rhino Resources' Capricornus and Volans discoveries were highlighted as especially significant because they appear to confirm the existence of what Wood Mackenzie called a "petrophysical sweet spot" within the Orange Basin.
The report argued that Capricornus, Volans and Mopane have effectively unlocked the inner sub-basin's development potential by proving high-quality reservoirs within the Cretaceous deepwater turbidite fairway.
Wood Mackenzie explained that, unlike the deeper-water Venus and Graff discoveries, which suffer from poor permeability, Capricornus and Volans sit within the inner flank of the outer structural high, shaped by seaward-dipping reflectors, a geological setting associated with improved reservoir quality.
The analysts noted that the discovery combines several highly attractive development metrics, including 38 metres of net pay, 37-degree API oil and tested productivity of approximately 11,000 barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie described Capricornus as having "minimal complexity" and "maximum development readiness".
Volans was similarly praised for strong reservoir quality and high deliverability, particularly because of its rich gas-condensate system, with condensate-to-gas ratios estimated at roughly 160 barrels per million cubic feet.
Wood Mackenzie warned that ultra-deepwater operating conditions, long distances from shore, seabed complexity and the absence of established petroleum infrastructure could slow project execution and raise development costs.
The presentation noted that some reservoirs lie at water depths approaching 3,000 metres, while Lüderitz Bay is approximately 360 kilometres from the Venus development area.
The report further noted that much of Namibia's coastline falls within national parks or other environmentally protected areas, adding complexity to pipeline routing, industrial development, ports, logistics bases and environmental approvals.
The analysts said Namibia currently lacks sufficient ports, fabrication yards, storage facilities, warehouses, training centres and broader petroleum support infrastructure to sustain multiple floating production, storage and offloading vessels.
The report additionally warned that Namibia still lacks an established domestic gas market, meaning most early development activity will focus primarily on oil production before broader gas commercialisation can realistically emerge.
"Development activity will focus on oil first," the analysts stated.
The analysts projected that combined production from Venus, Mopane and Capricornus could push Namibia's liquids production above 400,000 barrels per day during the 2030s, potentially positioning the country as sub-Saharan Africa's third-largest oil producer behind Nigeria and Angola.
The presentation also outlined several major milestones expected in 2026, which the analysts described as critical to determining how quickly Namibia transitions from exploration to full-scale project development.
Those include further appraisal drilling at Mopane through the Mopane-4X well, additional appraisal activity at Capricornus and Volans, Shell's Merlin-1X well, Chevron's Nabba-1X exploration well and TotalEnergies' Gemsbok-1X campaign.
