Chart of the week
The start of 2025 has brought with it hopes for a better rainy season. After dam levels in the central areas (particularly Swakoppoort, Von Bach) and the Hardap Dam reached worryingly low levels, rainfall in the first two weeks of 2025 has seen some improvement in these levels. While we are still far from being in the clear, this has provided some relief, particularly for farmers reliant on the Hardap Dam, as they can once again begin irrigation – albeit below their usual requirements.These dams have experienced three consecutive years of net drawdowns (from 2022 to 2024). The recent rains have provided the most meaningful recharge for these dams, with Swakoppoort having seen no recharge since early 2023, and the Von Bach and Hardap dams receiving no significant recharge since 2022. The Von Bach level appeared to have stabilised from early 2024, but this was simply due to water transfers from Swakoppoort.
As we approach the peak of the anticipated rainy season, it is interesting to note that, over the past 15 years, these dams typically see more recharge from January onward, with only a few years experiencing inflows as early as December. Indications are that the La Niña phenomenon is still present but will weaken into neutral conditions around March/April (according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society).
While we can hope for good rainfall and dam recharge in 2025, it is clear that more needs to be done to ensure the sustainability of the central areas of Namibia and the Hardap irrigation schemes. After similar scares in 2016/17 and 2019/20, very little progress has been made to prevent a similar crisis in the future. Windhoek, in particular, has seen a material increase in its population over the decades, but with relatively little expansion of water supply infrastructure. Similarly, much of the country’s water-intensive industries are located in these areas, also relying on the limited supply. Given the droughts and water shortages of the past decade, which have driven increased demand-side management, it is also very likely that Windhoek's water consumption per capita has stalled or even declined. This means there is only so much we can achieve through continued demand-side management.
For now, it seems that we should at least have sufficient water to see us through 2025, although sustaining this will require significantly more recharge over the coming months. However, without real progress on medium- and long-term solutions, these areas will continue to face such crises.