Oil: Big money, few jobs, nothing landed
Developing Namibia’s offshore oil discoveries with Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units promises a large inflow of money, but could create relatively few jobs and mean no crude oil comes ashore in Namibia.
American professor Stephen Holland, a Fulbright scholar visiting the Namibia Energy Institute at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), warned that the local economic impact of taking offshore oilfields into production could be limited.
An FPSO typically employs about 100 people at a time, Holland said, while the oil produced from ultra-deepwater wells would be refined at sea, loaded onto tankers and shipped directly to international markets.
“There is a lot of oil out there, and it is worth a lot of money,” he said.
However, Holland warned that extracting Namibia’s offshore oil will be difficult and expensive. The discoveries are located about 200km offshore, beneath 2km of water and at least another 2km below the seabed.
Getting the oil to the production stage will be costly and risky, he said.
Oil production is also not sustainable because the resource will eventually be depleted. This makes Namibia’s infant Welwitschia Sovereign Wealth Fund important in ensuring that the benefits of oil production have a lasting impact and improve the lives of Namibians today and in generations to come.
Solar power potential
Speaking at the Namibia Scientific Society last week about the country’s energy challenges and future, Holland also highlighted Namibia’s strong solar power potential.
“I think the future is going to be electric,” he said, pointing to advances elsewhere in the world, particularly in China, where solar power generation has expanded rapidly.
According to Holland, installed solar generation capacity in China increased from 277.2GW to 315.1GW between 2024 and 2026.
He also pointed to rapid changes in the cost of photovoltaic panels. Although the silicon wafers used to manufacture the panels are produced almost exclusively in China, and China accounts for about 80% of solar cell production, panels can now be assembled almost anywhere, he said.
The installation of solar power generation also presents significant opportunities for local content, Holland said.
“The costs are falling rapidly,” he said.
Battery costs are also falling, allowing solar power to be deployed after sunset, while advances in battery technology are improving power density, charging speeds and battery life.
“Battery innovation is driven by cellphones, electric cars and drones, not by the electricity industry,” he said.
Room for more research
Namibia has some of the world’s highest solar potential, with production reaching up to 5.5kWh per kW per day, according to Holland. He attributed this to the country’s expansive desert areas and high altitudes.
There is also scope for further scientific research to reduce uncertainty around Namibia’s wind resources, which could complement solar power generation.
The potential is particularly strong along the coast, he said.
Namibians could also benefit from small-scale solar projects, including mini-grids and microgrids that are not connected to the national network.
Net metering is already available in Namibia, although rates are lower for grid-connected solar producers, with electricity bought at retail rates and sold back to the grid at wholesale rates, Holland said.
“Nevertheless, there is a stunning rate of return for installing solar, especially at large scale,” he said.
A study of solar power with net metering at the Etunda Green Scheme provides evidence of this potential, Holland said, referring to research he presented during his talk.
Green hydrogen and nuclear energy
Holland is also optimistic about Namibia’s prospects for producing green hydrogen using solar power.
He pointed to the potential for developing recent gas discoveries in the Kavango regions for local electricity generation, as well as the possibility of nuclear energy.
However, he said all three options come with their own challenges.
