Conditions for rain improve

Elvira Hattingh
Namibia can expect good rain in the first half of December and then again in January, while the second part of December and February are expected to be somewhat drier.
This according to Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist from Bloemfontein, who shared the latest weather outlook for Namibia. “It seems that the conditions for rain in Namibia are starting to improve.
“Over the past days and even weeks, there have been a few showers over the northern parts of Namibia, but there has been little rain in the south. It rained a little in the South in October, but it wasn't much,” he said.
However, he said the northern areas can prepare for more rain.
This is consistent with the Namibian met office, which is forecasting thunderstorms in the North for today.
“It seems that the northern and north-eastern areas can expect showers of between 10 mm and 20 mm before the end of November. It also appears that these areas can expect more rain in the first half of December, with showers of around 20 mm to 30 mm.
“South of Windhoek we expect only lighter rain for the time being,” he said.
Van den Berg explained that the La Niña weather phenomenon has now reached a peak, while it has gained a hold on global weather conditions for the third consecutive year.
“It will probably weaken from now on. The consequences of this are that Namibia can still expect quite a bit of rain in December and in January, but the second part of the summer, from February, it can be drier.”
Van den Berg recently told Republikein that after the upcoming rainy season, La Niña conditions are expected to begin to lose their grip in subsequent rainy seasons. This could then give way to more neutral or El Niño-type conditions over the next number of years, he said.
This is consistent with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology which said in its latest forecast that atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) reflect a mature La Niña.
At the same time, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues, although it recently reached a neutral value for the first time in five months. A negative IOD is favourable for rainfall in Southern Africa, while in Australia it also improves the chances of above-average rain in winter and into spring.
During the IOD's negative phase, cooler water occurs in the western region of the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Africa, and warmer water closer to Australia. - [email protected]