El Niño alert issued for southern Africa
An erratic start to the rainy season is expected to reduce agricultural labour opportunities.
An El Niño alert has been issued for southern Africa by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), with more than 20 million people estimated to face severe levels of food insecurity as they bear the brunt of the climate pattern’s adverse effects.Namibia has been identified as one of 34 priority countries that need support to reduce the impacts of the El Niño.
According to FEWS NET, El Niño is expected to result in a below-average October to March rainy season in many areas across the region, which will likely cause harvests to underperform in 2024.
Grazing conditions are expected to deteriorate atypically early in 2024, and higher-than-average livestock deaths are projected in the second half of 2024 until the start of the 2024/2025 rainy season in October.
An erratic start to the rainy season is also expected to reduce agricultural labour opportunities. At the same time, above-average staple food prices will make it difficult for poor households to purchase enough food to meet their daily needs.
Assistance needed
FEWS NET has warned donors and humanitarian partners to prepare for high food assistance needs in southern Africa.
The ongoing strong El Niño event, expected to reach peak intensity in late 2023 and dissipate by mid-2024, will drive below-average rainfall across much of the region, it said.
“The negative impacts of the El Niño during the 2023/2024 rainy season are expected to offset any recent improvements from declining inflation.”
According to its report, it is estimated that over 20 million people will need food assistance during the January to March 2024 peak of the lean season.
Namibia has projected that the number of people expected to experience food insecurity from October 2023 to March 2024 in the country will rise to 695 000 - 26% of the population.
From July to September this year, 579 000 people in Namibia faced acute food insecurity.
Furthermore, the expected below-average 2024 harvests will be exhausted earlier than usual, leading to comparably high food assistance needs at the start of the following lean season in late 2024 and signalling even higher needs when the lean season peaks in early 2025, FEWS NET said.