No rain expected until end September
Very little to no rain is expected for at least the next three weeks; however there are chances of showers in the latter part of September and October.This is according to a climate report for maize producing areas of Namibia that the agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg issued this week.
He said the development of the El Niño weather phenomenon is ongoing and will be present for the season until about April next year.
"Maximum temperatures will be high for the next few weeks, but extremely high in mid to late summer."
Van den Berg said minimum temperatures for some areas in the North will drop to around 8 degrees Celsius in early September, but to around 3 degrees Celsius near Hardap with possible light frost from 25 to 28 August as well as from 5 to 9 September.
According to him, El Niño developments started in May this year and will reach a peak in December.
"The intensity of increasing heat will be strong to very strong. Current forecasts estimate a warming of between 2 and 2.8 degrees Celsius higher than normal.
Van den Berg said this compares well with the strongest El Niño since around 1950 which occurred in 2015-16 when sea surface temperatures peaked at 2.6 degrees Celsius warmer than normal.
"Remember that all El Niño events have not resulted in extreme dry conditions in the past - as in the case of the 2009-10 El Niño with above average rainfall."
About average rainfall is expected for September and October, but average to below average rainfall from November to April. The probability of receiving at least average rainfall for this period is about 20 to 40%.
The second part of the summer and especially from about February to April seems to be the most prone to drought conditions, Van den Berg said.